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2009 OAC Preview

                                                                  by Mark Grossman

 
A look at the Ohio Athletic Conference in 2009

     As we noted in our 2008 Ohio Athletic Conference preview, second place in the OAC behind Mount Union has been a revolving door the last 15-plus years.  And the actual play on the field last season proved it once again to be so, though it was an unexpected team garnering the coveted Pool C bid to the NCAA playoffs that usually accompanies a second place finish in one of the toughest conferences in all of Division III football.

     In the mid-1990’s it was the John Carroll Blue Streaks led by All-everything linebacker London Fletcher that was battling the Raiders for conference supremacy, capped by the Blue Streaks’ earning a 1997 playoff bid and ultimately falling to the Purple Raiders again in the North Region Finals.

     From 1999 through 2001 it was the Ohio Northern Polar Bears led by the talented offensive trio of quarterback Shane Franzer, running back Jamal Robertson and wide receiver Steve Vagedes who stepped forward to challenge the Purple & White.  The ONU years were capped by playoff runs in both 1999 and 2000 that ended with losses in Alliance.

     The 2002 season saw John Carroll return to the second place spot under the guidance of All-American quarterback Tom Arth.  That Blue Streak squad was shipped to the East Region by the NCAA selection committee and won their way back to Alliance before dropping a rematch with the Raiders in the National Semifinals.

     The 2003 Baldwin-Wallace team was the next challenger to the throne as the Yellow Jackets earned a playoff spot on the strength of their second place conference finish, but lost an opening round contest to Wheaton (IL).

     In 2004 it was the Ohio Northern Polar Bears that pushed the Raiders for the conference title in finishing 8-2 but a 31-3 loss to Baldwin-Wallace cost them a shot at the NCAA playoffs.

     The 2005 regular season was capped by a 21-14 Ohio Northern win at Mount Union that snapped the Raider’s 100 game regular season win streak.  However the ’05 Bears went on to lose to John Carroll and Capital to finish in a second place tie with the Crusaders.  On the strength of their head-to-head win over the Polar Bears and a tightly contested game against Mount Union, Capital received one of the last 2005 Pool C playoff bids and earned a rematch with the Raiders in the North Region Finals that ended in a three-point loss.

     2006 was more of the same for the Crusaders as they once again lost by three points to Mount Union in the North Region Finals.  In fact, the three closest games played by the Raiders in all of 2005 and 2006 were the above mentioned match-ups with Ohio Northern and Capital.

     2007 saw Capital survive the graduation of All-everything quarterback Rocky Pentello after the ’06 season as the Crusaders once again finished in second place and qualified for NCAA Playoffs for the third consecutive year.  However when Jim Collins left for the greener pastures of Saginaw Valley State, the Capital program took a major step backwards in ’08 under first year head coach Jim Bickel, finishing a very disappointing 5-5.

     With the Crusaders out of the way, 2008 saw the Otterbein Cardinals stake their first claim to being an elite OAC team behind quarterback Jack Rafferty and a very potent offense after quite a few seasons of not living up to its pre-season hype.  The Cardinals qualified for the playoffs for the first time in school history but lost an opening round home game to Franklin 62-45.

     However a program isn’t made on the backs of a single team, and if Head Coach Joe Loth hopes to bring his program to the forefront of the conference, the 2009 season will be crucial, especially if Rafferty doesn’t return (more on that later).

     So as we head into summer workouts, there are questions all around the OAC:

  • Will Otterbein use their surprising 9-2 record as a spring board to even greater success and a deeper run into the playoffs or will they return to the depths of mediocrity?

  • Will Capital rebound from a disappointing 2008 to regain its spot near the top that became commonplace under Collins, or are they doomed to repeat another .500 season under Bickel?

  • Can Ohio Northern find lightning in a bottle like it did in ’05 and shock Mount Union or will another season be lost to injury?

  • What will it take for Baldwin-Wallace and John Carroll to improve on its mediocre 5-5 seasons?

  • Mike Hallett has brought the Heidelberg Student Princes up from the ashes, but does he have what it takes in place to get them above .500?

  • Which team is most likely to get mired in the conference cellar? 

     To answer these questions, let’s take a look around the OAC for 2009:

 Team Capsules (Listed in order of 2008 final standings)

Mount Union Purple Raiders / 2008 record: 15-0 overall, 9-0 OAC (1st Place)

Mount_Union_Purple_Raiders.gif (10711 bytes)

     After claiming their 17th consecutive conference title on the way to a record 10th National Championship, the Purple Raiders will likely lean on an experienced defense to start the ’09 season to offset the graduation of quarterback Greg Micheli, the ’08 Gagliardi Award winner, and running back Nate Kmic, the most prolific rusher in NCAA history with over 8,000 career yards.

     The Raider “D” led Division III last season in Total Defense (199 yds/game), Rushing Defense (58 yds/game) and Scoring Defense (8.7 pts/game).  And though it may sound crazy, the defense heads into 2009 looking to improve on those gaudy numbers with nine of eleven starters returning.

     The strength on the defense will be up front as three First-Team All-OAC honorees return in end James Herbert, the Paul Hoernemann Award winner as the conference's best defensive lineman, end Joe Millings and tackle Matt Williamson.  They will be joined by tackles Clantz Liggett and Zac Saum, both of whom saw time in the starting lineup last season, as well as pass rushing specialist Lambert Budzinski, thereby giving Defensive Coordinator Vince Kehres six experienced and very talented defensive linemen to start the season.

     The Raider secondary returns four of five starters in cornerback Ryan Renbarger and safeties Drew McClain (Second-Team All-OAC), Chaz Jordan and Roger Stewart (First-Team All-OAC).  Linebacker Sam Kershaw returns as well after earning Honorable Mention All-OAC accolades even though he didn’t make his first start until mid-season.

     Offensively, the Raiders lose the greatest QB/RB tandem in school history, but the cupboard is hardly bare with six starters and most of the back-ups from ’08 returning.

     The offensive line returns four starters in center Mike Nitz (First-Team All-OAC), left guard James Bird (Second-Team All-OAC), left tackle Caleb Crowl and right guard Sam Guerrero.  Also returning are all five back-ups providing the O-line the depth it was severely lacking last season

     The most experienced group on “O” is the receiving corps which returns all three starters in Cecil Shorts (First-Team All-OAC), Vince Petruziello (Second-Team All-OAC) and AJ Claycomb.  Shorts won the Ed Sherman Award as the conference's best receiver.

     The Raider running game should be in good hands (and feet) with senior running back Scott Panchik getting the first shot at filling the very big shoes of the graduated Kmic.  Terrance Morring is expected to return from an injury last year with a host of young backs fighting for carries to provide additional depth.

     The key offensively will be finding a viable replacement for Micheli at quarterback, who finished his career as the NCAA All-Divisions leader in career Passing Efficiency.  The odds-on favorite to start the ’09 season under center is senior Kurt Rocco who backed up Micheli the last two seasons.

     Though you won’t find him listed on the player roster, the biggest “returnee” from ’08 is Head Coach Larry Kehres who enters into his 24th season at the helm of the Raider program with a remarkable record of 275-21-3.

     For more detailed information on the ’09 Raiders, please check back with us in August as we’ll release our complete 2009 Mount Union Preview before the start of fall camp.

Otterbein Cardinals / 2008 record: 9-2 overall, 8-1 OAC (2nd Place)

Otterbein_Cardinals_04.gif (7709 bytes)     After languishing around the .500 mark for the last decade, Loth’s program took a large step forward with a surprising 8-1 conference record last season.  The only blemish was a 49-20 set back to Mount Union, which at season’s end was the third most points Mount Union surrendered.  Only Wheaton's 24 points in the national semifinal and Whitewater's 26 in the Stagg Bowl were more.

     On the strength of their 9-1 overall record, the Cardinals were rewarded with their first ever NCAA playoff appearance via a Pool C at-large bid.  Based on the OAC’s stellar playoff history they were seeded fourth in the North Region giving them a first round home contest with Franklin.

     On paper, this match-up looked to be a reasonably winnable game for the Cardinals.  However what no one knew heading into the playoffs was that Franklin had caught lightning in a bottle with quarterback Chad Rupp, a 2008 Gagliardi Finalist, who passed for over 500 yards in the Grizzlies 62-45 win in Westerville.  The Otterbein loss was only the second time in playoff history that the OAC runner-up lost in the playoffs to a team other than Mount Union, the other being Baldwin-Wallace’s loss to Wheaton in 2003.

     Leading the Cardinals surge up the OAC standings was a very productive offense (38.8 pts/game) led by Gagliardi Finalist Rafferty at quarterback, who was the 10th rated passer in all of Division III’s 235 teams in terms of efficiency.  Though listed as a senior last season, Rafferty was actually in graduate school and he somewhat surprisingly has another year of eligibility remaining after transferring from Western Kentucky.

     Even more surprising is the rumor floating around the Columbus area that Rafferty is uncertain whether he’ll return for 2009.  With a degree already in hand there is speculation (and trepidation too) that Rafferty won’t attend a second year of graduate school simply to play football.

     One thing is for certain though, for Otterbein to have any chance to remain near the top of the OAC, Rafferty needs to be under center this fall as the Cardinals were a relatively senior dominated team last season.  Assuming there aren’t any more guys with an additional year of unknown eligibility and Rafferty plays in 2009, Otterbein returns only 10 of 22 starters.

     Offensively, the Cardinals have a good mixture of talent to build around with First-Team All-OAC receiver Ryan Rowley, First-Team All-OAC running back Colton Coy, Second-Team All-OAC tight end Mike Detwiler, left guard Chris Berndt and center Sam Watson joining Rafferty in the starting lineup.  Also returning is backup running back Eric Yates, who earned Second-Team All-OAC honors.

     Defensively, the Cardinals were hit hard by graduation with only four starters returning from a rather average defense that surrendered 19.5 points per game.  The most experienced group is the secondary where First-Team All-OAC cornerback Chadrick Woodfork, free safety Danny Lynch and strong safety John Hochstelter return, but one has to question their production as the Cardinals ranked seventh in the OAC (and 172nd in the nation) in pass defense.

     A secondary’s best friend in pass defense is a great pass rush, but unfortunately the entire defensive line has graduated as well as two of the three linebackers.  Only outside linebacker Donnie Reinhart returns to a front seven that allowed 115 yards per game rushing and 323 yards per game total.  So it’s hard to imagine that the pass defense, or any part of the Cardinals defense, will show improvement this year.

     So what can we expect from the ’09 Cardinals?  It depends a lot on the decision of Rafferty and how they handle their newfound success and the pressure of being expected to contend again.  As they will find out this season, it’s much easier to climb the mountain than it is to remain there.

     Otterbein will also need to find more consistency in ’09 to avoid potential upsets that almost cost them last season like their 30-14 win vs. Wilmington where the Quakers were leading in the second half behind freshman backup quarterback Adam Reynolds before they lost him to a third quarter injury, and an 20-17 overtime win at depleted John Carroll.

     If Rafferty returns, they will once again have one of the nation’s best offenses, but a very inexperienced defense.  The offense alone should win them seven or eight games, but their lack of defense will cost them against the Raiders and possibly against some of the other OAC contenders.

     If Rafferty does not return, then I think Otterbein is in serious trouble and will struggle to reach .500.  Not to take anything away from the other guys, but as Rafferty went, so did the Cardinals last season.  And ’09 is likely to be no different.  The remaining offensive returnees are nice complimentary pieces but Rafferty is the only difference maker in the Cardinals offense.

     In all honesty, I believe Rafferty will return as the lure of playing one last season of football is a very strong one to walk away from, especially as a Gagliardi Finalist quarterback on a quality team with most of your offensive weapons back.  If he steps away, I’d be very surprised.

     Their 2009 schedule sets up quite nicely for a young defense to get settled in as the opener is an easy trip to Bethany (WV), followed by a week two trip to Muskingum, both of whom they beat badly last season.  On paper the home opener in week three against Ohio Northern should be much tougher than last year’s 37-7 shellacking, but ONU has been very disappointing and has been tough to figure out the last couple years.  If Wilmington can stay healthy this season at quarterback the week five trip to face the Quakers might be one of those fun, high scoring games worth watching if you’re free on October 17th.  Week six is a home date with cross-town rival Capital.  By the time the Cardinals visit Mount Union in week nine their season will either be over with a couple losses on the ledger or we’ll be planning for another quasi-OAC championship game.  I’m guessing on the latter.

Baldwin-Wallace Yellow Jackets / 2008 record: 5-5 overall, 5-4 OAC (Tied for 3rd Place)

Baldwin-Wallace_Yellow_Jackets_00.gif (7225 bytes)     Once again the Baldwin-Wallace program was a model of consistency in 2008.  Unfortunately over the last decade for Yellow Jacket fans it’s been a model of consistently average.

     Outside of the ’02 and ’03 seasons when the Jackets were led by Michigan State transfer Dan Larlham at quarterback, B-W has been hovering slightly above the .500 mark.  The ’02 and ’03 seasons were the only ones where they finished any higher than third place in the OAC and can be directly attributed to the play making ability of Larlham.

     Since 1999, their overall winning percentage is 62.7%.  Remove the two Larlham led seasons and the winning dips to 57.5%.  While many programs around the nation would love to average five or six wins a season, a once proud former national champion and OAC bully like Baldwin-Wallace isn’t one of them.

     Their third place 2008 OAC finish by itself looks encouraging, but not when you consider their 5-5 record and surprising losses to Wilmington and Heidelberg, both of whom finished at 4-6.  In a season where half the conference was either 5-4 or 4-5 in league play, finishing tied for third isn’t the same as many previous seasons where third place in the OAC equated to an 8-2 record and a Top 25 national ranking.

     As a testament to their struggles last year, only one B-W player, senior wide receiver Matt Lepley, earned First-Team All-OAC honors.

     The ’08 Yellow Jacket offense was ranked as the conference’s second best offense in total yardage at 378.6 yards per game but that was 168 yards a game behind conference leader Mount Union.  They were misleadingly ranked as the OAC’s third best scoring offense at 25.6 points per game, but were well behind OAC leaders Mount Union (45.5) and Otterbein (38.8) and just narrowly ahead of Heidelberg (25.2) and Capital (24.0).

     Hope abounds in Berea for more points and more wins as the Jackets head into 2009 with an experienced offense that returns seven starters led by senior-to-be quarterback Anthony Gardner (Honorable Mention All-OAC).  Gardner is an athletic quarterback with good decision making skills as evidenced by his third best quarterback efficiency rating in the conference behind Gagliardi Winner Micheli and Gagliardi Finalist Rafferty.  I dare you to find a quarterback amongst any of Division III’s 235 teams that had a better pair of quarterbacks to compete against in conference than Gardner did in Micheli and Rafferty.

     Gardner should have plenty of time to stand in the pocket as four starters return up front, led by senior left tackle Brett Scarl (Second-Team All-OAC).  Joining Scarl is senior left guard Dan Love, senior right guard Broc Dial and senior right tackle John Wilson.

     The backfield returns good depth with senior running back Kyle Crook and sophomore running back Tim Miker, B-W’s top rushers from 2008, as well as backup fullback Scott Weber.

     The receiving corps is a major question mark however as only senior tight end Kyle Skoczen returns.

     2008 saw the once dominate B-W defense fall to the OAC’s sixth rated defense against the rush, pass and scoring as well as shockingly being the OAC’s worst defense in registering quarterback sacks (1.3 sacks/game), thereby garnering special recognition for only defensive tackle Joe Kowalski (Second-Team All-OAC) and linebacker Paul Burger (Honorable Mention All-OAC), both of whom do not return.

     Reasonable numbers do return to the Jacket defense this season with seven starters back, but none of them earned all-conference honors putting in question the ability of the ’09 defense to create the game-changing plays necessary to dictate tempo in the always competitive OAC.

     The most experienced unit will be the secondary where senior strong safety Ryan Clokey, senior cornerback Pete Taylor and junior cornerback Ryan Dugan return.

     The linebacking corps returns senior outside backer Brad Koester and junior outside backer Ryan Kish but loses one of the conference’s best middle linebackers in Burger.  When healthy, Burger had First-Team All-Conference ability, but nagging injuries cost him parts of both the ‘07 and ’08 seasons.

     The defensive line returns senior tackle Kyle Menn and junior end Keith Darbut and three of the four backups.

     Reasonable expectations for the 2009 Jackets would be for them to continue their string of slightly above .500 play.  The season opener against Franklin should be much easier this time with Gagliardi Finalist quarterback Rupp and almost all his surrounding talent having graduated.  If B-W opens with a home loss to the Grizzlies, they could be in trouble as week two is at cross-town rival John Carroll and week four is a trip to Mount Union.  A slow start to the season could put the Brown & Gold well on their way to only their second losing season in the last 42 years.  The remaining schedule is spaced pretty well with Otterbein coming to Berea in week five, a trip to Ada in week eight to face Ohio Northern and a season finale at Capital.

Ohio Northern Polar Bears / 2008 record: 5-5 overall, 5-4 OAC (Tied for 3rd Place)

Ohio_Northern_Polar_Bears_06.gif (5611 bytes)     Since the 2005 shocker over Mount Union in Dean Paul’s first season in Ada, the Polar Bears have been respectably “decent”, which does not match the expectations for an ONU program that was pushing Mount Union to the very brink less than a decade ago with great names such as Franzer, Robertson and Vagedes all in the same huddle.

     The 2006 season was a dismal 6-4 mainly due to key injuries.  2007 wasn’t much better at 7-3 but didn’t include any of the injury excuses that ’06 had and saw the Polar Bears score at a rather pedestrian 23 points per game pace and surrender 17 points per contest.  2008 was a further step backward in finishing 5-5 overall with an offense that averaged 19.5 points per game and a defense that surrendered 18.7.

     After the graduation of often injured running back R.J. Meadows, the ONU offense heads into the season centered around junior-to-be running back Brent Donley.  Donley wasn’t on the depth chart to start the ’08 season but with Meadows again lost to injury the young back burst onto the scene and earned First-Team All-OAC accolades after finishing with over 750 rushing yards and seven touchdowns scored over the last seven games.

     Paving the way for Donley is an experienced offensive line that returns three starters in senior left guard Andrew Benchic (First-Team All-OAC), senior left tackle Rick Ingold (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior center Patrick Smith.  The two open spots will most likely be filled by juniors Justin Southwick and Pat Dochenetz, both of whom have prototype size in the 6-4, 290 range.

     The Polar Bear receiving corps returns the starting wide outs in junior Michael Busch and Sam Amidon.  As has been the case over the last several years, both Busch and Amidon are solid receivers but are not the game breakers needed to stretch the field, thereby making it more difficult to run the ball as the safeties can crowd the line of scrimmage knowing the corners won’t get beat deep.

     The biggest question offensively is once again the quarterback position.  Since the graduation of Franzer in 2000, the Polar Bears have been searching for a signal caller to make plays, not just hand off.  Through the last four graduated quarterbacks (Jeff Soliday, Corey Minnfield, Adam Quirk and Jeff Pankratz) and now Kyle Simmons, Ohio Northern has been winning in spite of their play, not because of it.

     The keys to the Polar Bear offense were turned over to Orrville product Simmons last season after he split time with Pankratz in ’07.  While Simmons has shown some flashes of ability, his play has been too inconsistent for Northern to be considered a legitimate threat.  Simmons finished the ’08 season as the OAC’s ninth ranked passer in terms of efficiency and dead last in total passing yardage with 100 yards per game.

     I find it simply amazing that Ohio Northern has struggled for so long with their passing game.  Their passing numbers over the last decade look more like what you would expect from Muskingum, not an ONU team anticipating to contend for a conference title.

     The experienced ’08 Polar Bear defense was built on being disruptive and getting into the opponent’s backfield.  They led the OAC in both sacks and tackles-for-loss and were ranked in the top 10 nationally in both categories.  Their depth and ability was proven by all four of last season’s starting defensive lineman earning some level of All-OAC recognition, led by First-Team tackle Jake Fallis.

     Unfortunately, Fallis and end Lokai-Owens (Honorable Mention All-OAC) have graduated leaving only senior end Josh Horn (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior tackle Alan Strange (Honorable Mention All-OAC) to shoulder the load up front this season.

     For ONU to continue their trend of tough, aggressive defenses, the Polar Bears have a lot of holes to fill as only three other starters return in senior middle linebacker Gabe Washington (Second-Team All-OAC), senior outside backer Adam Jones and junior defensive back Jesse Richards (Second-Team All-OAC).

     The schedule is the same as last season which puts a serious premium on breaking fall camp in mid-season form.  One could argue that the Polar Bears will face their three best opponents on the entire schedule in consecutive weeks to open the season.  The opener is a home contest with North Central (IL), which beat Northern 20-3 last year.  Week two sees a visit from defending National Champion Mount Union, which pasted the Bears 44-7 one year ago.  Week three is road trip to Westerville to face playoff qualifier Otterbein, which won 37-7 last season.  The combined ’08 record of those three opponents is a daunting 35-3.

     For ONU to reclaim its place amongst the OAC’s best teams, Paul simply must get much better play from his quarterback, especially to start the year.  If not, you can expect another .500 season.

Capital Crusaders / 2008 record: 5-5 overall, 4-5 OAC (Tied for 5th Place)

Capital_Crusaders_00.gif (8229 bytes)

     The Coach Bickel era began with a 4-0 start to the season but finished with a resounding “thud” as an experienced and playoff tested squad that returned 15 starters finished 4-5 in conference play, losing five of its last six games.  An injury to quarterback Marty Assman was once again a major contributor to the lost season as Assman went down early in the second half of the John Carroll loss in week six.

     Similar to 2007, the Capital offense was clicking right along with Assman under center (33 pts/game) and the Crusaders were ranked as high as fourth in the nation before a week five loss to Mount Union.  But with sophomore Nick Alexander filling in under center, the Capital offense (15 pts/game) and season came to a screeching halt.  In ’07 under Collins, the Crusaders survived the loss of Assman to injury early in the season by riding a stifling defense to an 8-2 regular season and a playoff berth.  However, it seems the magic left Bexley when Collins headed to Saginaw Valley State.

     If Assman can stay healthy and lead the offense for an entire season, Bickel’s fortunes should turnaround quickly with nine starters back on offense including four offensive linemen, led by Second-Team All-OAC senior center Cory Dutcher and Second-Team All-OAC senior right guard Kyle Koblinski.  Also returning up front is junior left tackle Bill Giblin and senior right tackle Chad Davis.

     With the extra time for Assman to stand in the pocket, the three returning receivers should see more passes coming their way.  Headlining the receiving corps will be junior Matt White, an Honorable Mention All-OAC selection last season.  Joining White will be senior Evan Blake, a Honorable Mention All-OAC performer in 2007, and senior Matt Merritt.

     Though Capital hasn’t featured the running game in ages, they do return experience at running back with junior Dominic D’Andrea, a 6-2, 220 bruiser.

     Defensively, six starters return from the ’08 squad that finished in the middle of the OAC pack in almost every statistical category.  The Crusader "D" ranked either fifth or sixth in scoring defense, total defense, rush defense, pass efficiency defense and pass yardage defense.

     The strength of this season’s defense should be the secondary, which returns three starters in senior free safety Brad Pickens (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior cornerbacks Evan DeLuca and Drew Stimmel.

     The defensive line returns senior tackle Drew Ruble and senior end Josh Ramey.  The last returning starter is junior middle linebacker Sam Jacobs (Honorable Mention All-OAC).

     The Crusaders open the season with a trip to Adrian, whom they disposed of rather easily 34-14 last season.  OAC play opens with three favorable match-ups against Heidelberg, Wilmington and Marietta, before the week five showdown with Mount Union.  Hopefully for Bickel, his troops are a little healthier to end this season as the final two weeks will likely define the ’09 Crusaders with contests against Ohio Northern and Baldwin-Wallace.

     One advantage to the ’09 schedule is most of the OAC powers are traveling to Bexley as Mount Union, John Carroll, Ohio Northern and Baldwin Wallace all make trips to Central Ohio.  Only the cross-town war with Otterbein is on the road for the Crusaders this season.

     It’s hard to predict the health of a team as injuries are part of the game, but Capital certainly has been snake bit the last couple years with the loss of Assman for significant periods of time.  If he can finally stay healthy for his senior season, the Crusaders could be a force to be reckoned with based on the depth and experience they have back on offense.  The Crusader defense isn’t overly experienced, but Bickel was a great defensive coordinator under Collins and there isn’t any reason to believe he won’t be able to build a reasonably stout defense to go along with a potentially very good offense.

     Simply put, the key for Capital in ’09 is the health of Assman.

John Carroll Blue Streaks / 2008 record: 5-5 overall, 4-5 OAC (Tied for 5th Place)

John_Carroll_Blue_Streaks_00.gif (7274 bytes)     If Blue Streak fans thought 2006 (5-5 overall) and 2007 (6-4 overall) were disappointing, they had to be beside themselves at the end of 2008.  The problem wasn’t that their final record was any different from the previous seasons, it was how they got there that made ’08 so painful to watch.

     The Streaks opened the ’08 season winning five of their first six contests, and only a squandered 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of a 21-17 loss at Baldwin-Wallace kept JCU from a 6-0 start.  However, a promising season ended in the dumps as the Streaks lost their last four games, including an embarrassing 15-14 setback at Muskingum in week nine, and an overtime loss to Otterbein (20-17) in the season finale.

     The Achilles heel for the JCU offense was its play along the line of scrimmage.  It finished at or very near the bottom of the OAC in two very telling statistics:

  • 10th in rushing offense (90 yds/game)

  • 9th in sacks allowed (3.4 sacks/game)

     When you can’t protect your quarterback or run the ball with any consistency, you’re in trouble, especially in the OAC.  In the contest versus Mount Union alone, quarterback Mark Petruziello was sacked seven times and knocked down at least another dozen times.

     The John Carroll offense could have been explosive if the offensive line would have protected Petruziello as he was a talented, athletic quarterback, capable of making the big play and making all the major throws.  As a testament of his playmaking ability, the league’s head coaches voted him Honorable Mention All-OAC.  But the quarterback needs to be upright to deliver the ball and Petruziello simply didn’t have a chance to stand in the pocket and read the defense.

     For Head Coach Regis Scafe’s sake, I hope four returning starters to the O-line equates to improved protection for new signal caller Jeff Javorek, and open running lanes for new running back Mark Elsaessar.  Otherwise Javorek and Elsaessar might not survive the season as both are of slight build in the 5-10, 180 range.

     The returnees up front are junior left tackle Philip Bokovitz, senior center Joseph Micca, junior right guard Brian Stevenson and senior right tackle Keven Dorsainvil.

     One bright spot offensively for the Blue & Gold heading into 2009 is the depth at wide receiver as their top two pass catchers return in senior wide receiver Frank Ross (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior wide receiver Rebere Sparks, as well as the starting tight end senior Nick Spahar.

     Defensively, the Streaks were very strong in 2008 and easily had the second best defense in the conference behind Mount Union.  They were near the top of the OAC in all the major defensive categories including second in scoring defense, second in forcing turnovers and third in total defense.  The strength of that defense was an active and sure tackling secondary and linebacking unit, led by five All-OAC performers including First-Teamers middle linebacker Mike Nettling and free safety Carlo Melaragno.

     Unfortunately, only three starters return from that defense and none of them were all-conference performers.  The returners are senior end Case Allin, senior tackle Matt Hodges and senior outside backer Alex Mileskiewicz.

     The season starts with a home date against Thomas More, whom they beat 41-14 last season.  The OAC slate opens with a visit from Baldwin-Wallace which should be a good, even pairing between programs that are fighting to stay above the up and coming Wilmington Quakers and Heidelberg Student Princes.  Much like last year, its season will likely be made or lost in weeks six through eight when JCU faces Capital, Ohio Northern and Mount Union in successive contests.

     For the Streaks to win enough games to match their ’08 win total, their offensive line is going to have to be much better than last season and the defense needs to find some new playmakers.  From my vantage point of watching MTU vs. JCU varsity and junior varsity games over the last few years, I seriously doubt the quality depth exists in University Heights to fill all the holes in the defense.  So I’m expecting another disappointing season in for the Blue & Gold.

Wilmington Quakers / 2008 record:  4-6 overall, 4-5 OAC (Tied for 5th Place)

Wilmington_Quakers_05.gif (8028 bytes)     After consistently alternating between 2-8 and 3-7 seasons over the last six campaigns, Wilmington took a step forward in ’08 by winning four OAC games , which is the second most conference wins since joining the conference in 2000.  Only their 7-2 inaugural season ('00) saw the Quakers be more competitive in league play than they were in ’08.

     Third-year starter at quarterback, Billy Blackburn, entered last season with high hopes based on the eight other returning starters, including four players that earned All-OAC honors last season in senior First-Team All-OAC wide receiver Marque Jones, senior First-Team All-OAC tight end Wes Anders, sophomore Second-Team All-OAC running back Marc Otte and senior Honorable Mention All-OAC wide receiver Brandon Hiatt.

     However the injury bug bit the quarterback position hard in mid-season as Blackburn went down against Muskingum in week five.  One week later against Otterbein, backup sophomore quarterback Adam Reynolds was lost as well.  The Reynolds injury was extremely costly for the win/loss column as the Quakers were leading the Cardinals in the third quarter before he went down.

     When Mount Union came to town in week seven, the Quaker starting quarterback was a true freshman taking his first collegiate snaps from center.  Making your first start against the nation’s best defense isn’t the best way to ease yourself into the college game, but that was exactly what Nate Stierhoff was facing.  Unfortunately the injury bug bit again when Stierhoff left the game in the second quarter, leaving the quarterback duties to a rotation of wide receivers taking a direct snap and attempting to run.  As expected, it didn’t work.

     Without the injuries, the Quakers probably would have cracked the .500 mark which would have been a very successful season.  Even so, the improvement from 2-8 to 4-6 with the close scare they put into playoff qualifier Otterbein was enough to garner Head Coach Barry Wulf OAC Coach-of-the-Year honors.

     Heading into 2009, Blackburn will be taking the snaps for his fourth season and will have the comfort of all five of his offensive linemen returning in senior left tackle C.J. Potter, senior left guard Luke Harris, junior center Randy Swain, senior right guard Matt McCabe and junior right tackle Adam Salyers.

     Both running backs also return for ’09 with senior tailback Tim Pugh and junior fullback Brett McEvoy.

     The receiving corps was a good one last year as the flanker, split end and tight end all earned All-OAC honors, but unfortunately for Wulf, they were all seniors last season.  So for Blackburn to have a successful senior campaign, he’s going to have to find some new targets.

     Defensively, the Quakers return seven starters from a squad that was rather porous in ’08.  However it may be too harsh to completely hang all of the blame on the defensive personnel without any consistent production from the decimated offense.  The Wilmington defense was on the field way too much and finished the ’08 season ranked somewhere between seventh to ninth in the major defensive categories like total defense, scoring defense, rush defense, pass defense, etc.

     Wulf has the makings of an improved defense with good experience up the middle with all three defensive linemen, both inside linebackers and both safeties returning to his 3-4 alignment.

     Junior end Kenny Marsh (Second-Team All-OAC), senior nose guard Cedric Holmes and senior end Nathan Geers bring stability to the front line.  Senior Chris Medley (Second-Team All-OAC) and junior Bryce Martin return to the inside linebacker spots.  The secondary will be built around junior free safety T.J Burbridge (Honorable Mention All-OAC) and junior strong safety Donta’ Stone.  The holes are on the edges with both outside linebacker and cornerback spots up for grabs entering camp.

     Their season once again starts against a quality Mount St. Joseph team that has either won or challenged for the last couple Heartland College Athletic Conference crowns, and is likely to do the same this season.  The OAC slate opens with a potentially winnable game against Marietta before the OAC’s big boys come calling.

     Overall, I think the Quakers have the potential to finish .500 if their defense can improve against the run and if the young receivers step up to provide solid targets for Blackburn.  With a four-year starter at quarterback and an experienced O-line, they should be able to score enough points to win some games.  My only question is whether the defense can improve enough to make the difference between a close loss versus a gutty victory.

Heidelberg Student Princes / 2008 record: 4-6 overall, 3-6 OAC (8th Place)

Heidelberg_Student_Princes_09.gif (5509 bytes)     The Student Princes could be the poster child for how quickly expectations can change.

     Two years ago the Student Princes were in the midst of a 30+ game losing streak and would give anything to just win a single game.  Enter Hallett at head coach for the 2007 season and immediately hope sprung eternal on campus that the losing streak was history.  They were right as Hallett’s charges went 4-6 in that inaugural season.

     Heidelberg finished the ’08 season at 4-6 for the second season in a row, however this time that record left a somewhat hollow feeling as they were expecting much bigger things from an experienced team returning eight starters on offense and nine on defense.

     It doesn’t take long for the expectations to change in college sports.  Just two short years removed from a 36-game losing streak and the Student Princes were unsatisfied with a four win season.

     What made the ’08 season so frustrating was exactly how close The ‘Berg was to six wins.  A failed two-point conversion in the closing minutes of its week three battle at John Carroll was the difference in a 17-15 loss, and a week eight home loss to Wilmington (23-20) was a hard one to swallow after leading 20-10 at halftime.

     With eight starters returning last season, the Heidelberg offense was productive and finished the year ranked as the OAC’s fourth best offense in scoring and total offensive yards.  Their “O” was well balanced being ranked fifth in both rushing and passing yardage gained.  Based simply on the offensive numbers, the Orange & Black should have garnered more than four wins.

     As we look forward to 2009 offensively, the Student Princes will have some holes to fill as only five starters return led by senior Second-Team All-OAC running back Jemar Lewis.  Also returning is junior quarterback Andrew Miller, junior fullback Chance Ferrell, sophomore right guard Derrick Arbogast and sophomore right tackle Paul Dunn.

     Miller had a reasonably successful sophomore season, throwing for over 200 yards per game with a good quarterback efficiency rating of 133.20, which placed him fourth in conference behind Micheli (Mount Union), Rafferty (Otterbein) and Gardner (Baldwin-Wallace).

     The downfall for much of 2008’s woes hangs on a defense that finished dead last in the OAC in rush defense, giving up a staggering 209 yards per game, and was ranked ninth overall in total defense and scoring defense.

     Hopefully another year of experience, and maybe more importantly, another year in the weight room, makes the difference on “D” as Hallett returns eight starters, headlined by senior tackle Matt Grieves, a Second-Team All-OAC selection.

     Joining Grieves up front is junior tackle Chris Bowden and sophomore end Wayne Lanum.  Junior outside backer Vaughn Klein (Honorable Mention All-OAC) and senior middle linebacker Justin Dawson return at the linebacker spots.  The secondary returns senior cornerback Julius Higginbotham, senior strong safety Wayne Glisson and sophomore cornerback Tony Gordon.

     I’m somewhat hesitate to assume that a defense porous enough to surrender over 200 yards rushing per game in a conference known more for its passing attacks is going to drastically improve from one year to the next with the same personnel.

     Their season starts with a road date against Westminster (PA), whom they easily throttled last year 62-27.  If you ever wondered about the relative strength of the OAC versus the Presidents Athletic Conference, the comparison between Heidelberg and Waynesburg is rather telling.  In 2008, Waynesburg finished tied for third in the PAC with Grove City whereas Heidelberg finished eighth in the OAC.

     The conference slate gets interesting very quickly with weeks two through six being a gauntlet of Capital (A), John Carroll (H), Otterbein (A), Ohio Northern (A), Mount Union (H) and Baldwin-Wallace (H).

     The ’09 season will be an interesting one to see if the Student Princes have stockpiled the talent and depth necessary to remain a mid-level OAC team, or whether they will regress a bit with the graduation losses on offense.  Though I’m sure Hallett would disagree, I think it will be very difficult for Heidelberg to improve on their win total this year.  And in fact, it might be considered a success if they retain their place in the standings with the lack of players returning on offense and lack of strength defensively against the run.

     One thing is for sure though, Heidelberg isn’t the guaranteed win that they were a couple years ago before Hallett arrived on campus!

Muskingum Muskies / 2008 record: 3-7 overall, 2-7 OAC (9th Place)

Muskingum_Fighting_Muskies_00.gif (5614 bytes)     After a winless season to start the Al Logan era in New Concord, the Fighting Muskies made significant progress in year two and improved their win total by three games.  They were also very close to a few more wins if the ball would have bounced their way a little more.

     Specifically, there were two contests (22-20 loss at Wilmington and 45-41 home loss to Heidelberg) that must have had the Muskies thinking “what if” all off season.  Both contests went to the wire and a play here or there could have made the difference.

     The encouraging thing for Logan is that his squad was competitive against most of the OAC and they logged wins against Ohio Northern and John Carroll, two teams they haven’t beaten in years.

     Offensively, the Muskies return six starters from a unit that ranked a very respectable sixth in rushing offense (119 yds/game), total offense (305 yds/game) and scoring (20.5 pts/game) as well as seventh in passing yardage (186 yds/game) in conference.  These numbers are a drastic improvement over 2007 when the Muskies finished dead last in almost every offensive category.

     The only all-conference performer returning for ’09 is senior left tackle Steve Emmert (Honorable Mention All-OAC).  The other two all-league honorees graduated with wide receiver Jack Murray and running back Caleb Fuller, thereby leaving a couple big holes at the skill positions.

     The Muskies do return some experience in the backfield with junior quarterback Jake Burns taking the snaps again with senior wide receiver Josh Sams and junior Blake Allen as his primary receiving targets.

     Joining Emmert at the line of scrimmage is senior center Scott Madison and junior right guard Brian Barnhart.

     The Muskie defense returns eight starters, but none were All-OAC honorees from a squad that finished 2008 ranked at or very near the bottom of the OAC’s statistical categories.   The one area where they did perform well was tackles-for-loss, where they ranked fourth at 6.1 tackles-per-loss per game.

     The most experienced unit on defense will be the linebackers with all three starters returning in senior outside backer Brad Jordan, junior middle linebacker Brian Madzia and junior outside backer Dan Miller.

     The secondary returns senior free safety O.J. Siomedi and junior cornerbacks Nick Carfagna and Dennis Hicks.

     The defensive line returns junior end Robbie Weisenberger and junior tackle Michael Fritz.

     The season begins with a road trip to Defiance whom they beat handily last season 35-10.  OAC play opens the following two weeks with Otterbein and Mount Union, which is rough way to start league play.

     Regardless of the numbers returning, it’s hard to see the Muskies matching their win total for 2009.  It feels somewhat like two of their three wins last season were true upsets over ONU and JCU that won’t happen again this year.  If I had to guess right now, I’d pencil Muskingum in for a two or three win season at best.

Marietta Pioneers / 2008 record: 2-8 overall, 1-8 OAC (10th Place)

Marietta_Pioneers_06.gif (7158 bytes)     As expected, Jeff Filkovski’s first season as head coach at Marietta was a rough one after taking over from Kurt Weise who left the cupboard pretty bare leaving little depth for Filkovski to build a viable team with.  In the OAC it’s very rare for a young player to be physically prepared to compete, especially on the line of scrimmage, but that’s exactly what Filkovski had by season’s end with five freshmen and six sophomores in the starting lineup.  Three of which were on the defensive line.

     An old adage in coaching is that every freshman starter equates to one loss on the field and that was the case and more for the Pioneers last season as they struggled to get their two wins over Thiel (2-8 overall) and Muskingum (3-7 overall).  The upside of all the youth that played in ’08 is a lot of experience returning for ’09.

     Offensively, Marietta returns the entire starting lineup except for the center, headlined by senior Honorable Mention All-OAC running back Lamar Hunter, which was their only offensive all-conference performer.  Joining Hunter in the backfield is junior fullback Matt Ischy and quarterbacks Dexter Hughes (senior) and Ander Keller (sophomore).

     The receiving unit consists of junior flanker Cory Kreichbaum, junior tight end Zach Lashaway and sophomore slot receiver Jahmaal Jones.

     The offensive line should be senior left tackle George Frisch, senior left guard Chris Carter, sophomore right guard Matt Myers and junior right tackle Antoni Santilli.

     Defensively, the Pioneers return seven starters but lose their best two players from last season in middle linebacker Grant Cowell and cornerback Clinton Thompson, their only All-OAC performers.  The ‘Etta defense was horrendous in 2008 and finished the season ranked 229th out of 235 teams nationally in pass defense and 218th in scoring defense.  Any hope of increased wins must begin with improved play defensively.

     The most experienced unit on “D” will be the secondary where three seniors return in cornerback Corey Lemke, strong safety George Davis and free safety Rob Williamson.

     The front four was extremely young last season and returns junior end Adam Tate, junior tackle Pete Santagate and sophomore Cody Andrews.  The only linebacker returning is sophomore outside backer Dan Starr.

     What can we expect from the Pioneers this season?  The 17 returning starters point to a more competitive team, but I’m not sure that will equate to more actual wins.  Besides their two wins, the only other game they were even remotely competitive in was the 42-40 loss to Heidelberg.  Their next closest game was a 31-6 home loss against John Carroll.  So even though their play should be improved, I doubt the improvement will be enough to get more than two or three wins.

     Marietta has a reasonable season opener with nearby Thiel (2-8 in ’08) coming to the river.  The 21-18 Marietta win over Thiel accounted for half of their season win total and likely could be so again in ’09.  Their OAC slate opens at Wilmington, who drilled Marietta 34-7 last year.  From there the schedule gets noticeably tougher with Baldwin-Wallace, Capital, John Carroll and Ohio Northern in succession.  The Pioneer season ends with a trip to Mount Union.

The Games that will shape the 2008 season:

     A team’s season is often made or destroyed by a single win or loss.  And that is especially true in the extremely tough OAC where the champion is guaranteed a playoff spot and the runner-up is likely to garner a Pool C at-large bid.  If you’re able and willing to travel around this fall, here is where you need to be to catch the Game of the Week for the 2009 season:

Week 1 / September 5th – Franklin at Baldwin-Wallace:

     The easy choice in week one might have been Mount Union traveling to St. John Fisher, but last season’s opener wasn’t competitive and this year’s Fisher squad is even younger.  So the best place to see a great game this week is likely in Berea.  Franklin is coming off a surprising run to the Regional Finals but has lost All-Everything quarterback Chad Rupp.  And B-W looks to avenge last year’s 42-35 loss.  If nothing else, this game will tell us whether Franklin is more than the Chad Rupp show or not.

Week 2 / September 19th – Mount Union at Ohio Northern:

     The Dean Paul led Polar Bears are the last OAC team to beat Mount Union (21-14 in 2005), but have been struggling ever since.  With North Central coming to Ada in week one the ONU season could be over before it even starts if they’re not firing on all cylinders early.

Week 3 / September 26th – John Carroll at Heidelberg:

     Last season’s game was a 17-15 slugfest that ended with a missed Heidelberg two-point conversion in the closing minutes.  The ‘Berg has been close to beating JCU the last two years and this might be the year they finally get that elusive “W” against the Blue Streaks.

Week 4 / October 3rd – Baldwin-Wallace at Mount Union:

     If nothing else, B-W has proven over the years to be Mount’s most consistent challenger on the field.  They might not always finish close to MTU in the standings, but the Jackets usually play the Raiders physically tough.

Week 5 / October 10th – Otterbein at Baldwin-Wallace:

     Last season’s 42-28 Otterbein win was the first real test of the season for the Cardinals as B-W led at halftime.  This game should be the first tightly contested game for the Cardinals this season as well.

Week 6 / October 17th – Otterbein at Wilmington:

     Wilmington had Otterbein on the ropes last year before losing their second quarterback of the season to injury, ending their upset hopes midway through the third quarter.  A healthy Quaker squad could give the Cardinals everything they can handle again this season.

Week 7 / October 24th – Baldwin-Wallace at Heidelberg:

     B-W was the first OAC victim of the rejuvenated Student Princes in 2007 by the shocking score of 42-20.  The ‘Berg turned the trick again last season by winning 37-34 in overtime and ’09 should be another good one.

Week 8 / October 31st – Baldwin-Wallace at Ohio Northern:

     B-W hung on for a hard fought 10-7 win over ONU last year.  These two usually play it close to the vest, so if you like ball control offenses, defensive strategy and fighting over field position, here’s the game to watch.  If not, this would be a good day to rake the leaves. 

Week 9 / November 7th – Otterbein at Mount Union:

     If Otterbein can rebuild their defensive line, this game should be for the OAC title and a high seed in the NCAA playoffs. 

Week 10 / November 14th – John Carroll at Otterbein:

     Otterbein survived a 20-17 overtime thriller to gain their first ever playoff berth last season in University Heights.  Unless the Cardinals can shock the Purple Raiders in week nine, their playoff lives will likely be decided right here.

How it might end up:

     Here’s how I think the OAC will shake out this year:

1.  Mount Union The nation will focus on the graduation of Gagliardi Award winning quarterback Greg Micheli and NCAA career rushing leader and All-American running back Nate Kmic, but the OAC will learn that the Raiders are absolutely loaded at every other position on the field in 2009.  The defense will be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference with as deep and talented a defensive line as I can ever remember and the receiving corps will be one of the best ever.  The only question mark between having to win the conference on the strength of the defense and running away with it is the hole at quarterback.  But I’m guessing Kehres will find someone more than capable of steering the ship through the conference mine field.

     Predicting the top spot is easy.  Now it gets interesting.

2.  Capital If Assman can stay healthy, the Crusaders have all the pieces to make a run toward a NCAA playoff spot.  They have experience on offense and a good defensive minded head coach.

3.  Otterbein – I was tempted to pick the Cardinals to repeat their second place finish, but I just can’t buy in to a program that has lacked the consistency over the years to live up their potential every year.  They have the talent offensively to earn the second place spot, but the defense is young and they have to deal with the pressure of expectations that they haven’t ever had to deal with before.

4.  Baldwin-Wallace An experienced quarterback and a solid defense should be enough for B-W to stay in the top half of the conference.

5.  Ohio Northern Inconsistent quarterback play, lack of playmakers at wide receiver and an average defense dooms ONU from climbing any higher.

6.  Heidelberg – Good numbers on both offense and defense allows The ‘Berg to climb up the standings.

7.  Wilmington A four-year starter at quarterback and five returning O-linemen help the Quakers continue their steady climb from the cellar.

8.  John Carroll By name recognition alone, I have a hard time picking JCU this low, but a new quarterback combined with only three defensive starters could be the reason that sends John Carroll streaking even further down the standings.

9.  Marietta The Pioneers are improving and beat the Muskies last season. 

10.  Muskingum – The line between ninth and 10th is a fine one and the Muskies and Pioneers could easily flip flop.

     I hope you found our 2009 Ohio Athletic Conference Preview insightful.  Thanks for reading!

                                                                                    Mark Grossman