As we noted in our
2008 Ohio Athletic Conference preview, second place in the OAC behind Mount
Union has been a revolving door the last 15-plus years. And the actual play
on the field last season proved it once again to be so, though it was an
unexpected team garnering the coveted Pool C bid to the NCAA playoffs that
usually accompanies a second place finish in one of the toughest conferences
in all of Division III football.
In the mid-1990’s
it was the John Carroll Blue Streaks led by All-everything linebacker London
Fletcher that was battling the Raiders for conference supremacy, capped by
the Blue Streaks’ earning a 1997 playoff bid and ultimately falling to the
Purple Raiders again in the North Region Finals.
From 1999 through
2001 it was the Ohio Northern Polar Bears led by the talented offensive trio
of quarterback Shane Franzer, running back Jamal Robertson and wide receiver
Steve Vagedes who stepped forward to challenge the Purple & White. The ONU years
were capped by playoff runs in both 1999 and 2000 that ended with losses in
Alliance.
The 2002 season
saw John Carroll return to the second place spot under the guidance of
All-American quarterback Tom Arth. That Blue Streak squad was shipped to
the East Region by the NCAA selection committee and won their way back to
Alliance before dropping a rematch with the Raiders in the National
Semifinals.
The 2003 Baldwin-Wallace team was the next challenger to the throne as the Yellow Jackets
earned a playoff spot on the strength of their second place conference finish, but
lost an opening round contest to Wheaton
(IL).
In 2004 it was the Ohio
Northern Polar Bears that pushed the Raiders for the conference title in
finishing 8-2 but a 31-3 loss to Baldwin-Wallace cost them a shot at the NCAA playoffs.
The 2005 regular
season was capped by a 21-14 Ohio Northern win at Mount Union that snapped
the Raider’s 100 game regular season win streak. However the ’05 Bears went
on to lose to John Carroll and Capital to finish in a second place tie with
the Crusaders. On the strength of their head-to-head win over the Polar Bears and
a tightly contested game against Mount Union, Capital received one of
the last 2005 Pool C playoff bids and earned a rematch with the Raiders in
the North Region Finals that ended in a three-point loss.
2006
was more of
the same for the Crusaders as they once again lost by three points
to Mount Union in the North Region Finals. In fact, the three closest games
played by the Raiders in all of 2005 and 2006 were the above mentioned
match-ups with Ohio Northern and Capital.
2007 saw Capital
survive the graduation of All-everything quarterback Rocky Pentello after
the ’06 season as the Crusaders once again finished in second place and
qualified for NCAA Playoffs for the third consecutive year. However when
Jim Collins left for the greener pastures of Saginaw Valley State, the Capital program took a major step backwards in ’08 under
first year head coach Jim Bickel, finishing a very disappointing 5-5.
With the Crusaders
out of the way, 2008 saw the Otterbein Cardinals stake their first claim to
being an elite OAC team behind quarterback Jack Rafferty and a very potent
offense after quite a few seasons of not living up to its
pre-season hype.
The Cardinals qualified for the playoffs for the first time in school
history but lost an opening round home game to Franklin 62-45.
However a program isn’t made on the backs of a single team, and if
Head Coach Joe Loth hopes to bring his program to the forefront of the conference, the 2009
season will be crucial, especially if Rafferty doesn’t return (more on that
later).
So as we head into
summer workouts, there are questions all around the OAC:
Will Otterbein use
their surprising 9-2 record as a spring board to even greater success
and a deeper run into the playoffs or will they return to the depths of
mediocrity?
Will Capital
rebound from a disappointing 2008 to regain its spot near the top that
became commonplace under Collins, or are they doomed to repeat
another .500 season under Bickel?
Can Ohio Northern
find lightning in a bottle like it did in ’05 and shock Mount Union or
will another season be lost to injury?
What will it take
for Baldwin-Wallace and John Carroll to improve on its mediocre 5-5
seasons?
Mike Hallett has
brought the Heidelberg Student Princes up from the ashes, but does he
have what it takes in place to get them above .500?
Which team is most
likely to get mired in the conference cellar?
To answer these questions, let’s take a look
around the OAC for 2009:
Team Capsules (Listed
in order of 2008 final standings)
Mount Union Purple Raiders / 2008 record: 15-0
overall, 9-0 OAC (1st Place)
After claiming their 17th consecutive conference title on the way to a record
10th National Championship, the Purple Raiders will likely lean on an experienced
defense to start the ’09 season to offset the graduation of quarterback Greg Micheli, the ’08 Gagliardi Award winner, and running back Nate Kmic, the
most prolific rusher in NCAA history with over 8,000 career yards.
The Raider “D” led Division III last season in Total Defense (199 yds/game),
Rushing Defense (58 yds/game) and Scoring Defense (8.7 pts/game). And
though it may sound crazy, the defense heads into 2009 looking to improve on
those gaudy numbers with nine of eleven starters returning.
The strength on the defense will be up front as three First-Team All-OAC
honorees return in end James Herbert, the Paul Hoernemann Award winner as
the conference's best defensive lineman, end Joe Millings and tackle Matt
Williamson. They will be joined by tackles Clantz Liggett and Zac Saum,
both of whom saw time in the starting lineup last season, as well as pass
rushing specialist Lambert Budzinski, thereby giving Defensive Coordinator
Vince Kehres six experienced and very talented defensive linemen to start
the season.
The Raider secondary returns four of five starters in cornerback Ryan
Renbarger and safeties Drew McClain (Second-Team All-OAC), Chaz Jordan and
Roger Stewart (First-Team All-OAC). Linebacker Sam Kershaw returns as well
after earning Honorable Mention All-OAC accolades even though he didn’t make
his first start until mid-season.
Offensively, the Raiders lose the greatest QB/RB tandem in school history,
but the cupboard is hardly bare with six starters and most of the back-ups
from ’08 returning.
The offensive line returns four
starters in center Mike Nitz (First-Team All-OAC), left guard James Bird (Second-Team All-OAC),
left tackle Caleb Crowl and right guard Sam Guerrero. Also returning are
all five back-ups providing the O-line the depth it was severely lacking
last season
The most experienced group on “O” is the receiving
corps which returns all three
starters in Cecil Shorts (First-Team All-OAC), Vince Petruziello
(Second-Team All-OAC) and AJ Claycomb. Shorts won the Ed Sherman Award
as the conference's best receiver.
The Raider running game should be in good hands (and feet) with senior
running back Scott Panchik getting the first shot at filling the very big
shoes of the graduated Kmic. Terrance Morring is expected to return from an
injury last year with a host of young backs fighting for carries to provide
additional depth.
The key offensively will be finding a viable replacement for Micheli at
quarterback, who finished his career as the NCAA All-Divisions leader in
career Passing Efficiency. The odds-on favorite to start the ’09 season under
center is senior Kurt Rocco who backed up Micheli the last two seasons.
Though you won’t find him listed on the player roster, the biggest
“returnee” from ’08 is Head Coach Larry Kehres who enters into his 24th
season at the helm of the Raider program with a remarkable record of
275-21-3.
For more detailed information on the ’09 Raiders, please check back with us
in August as we’ll release our complete 2009 Mount Union Preview before the
start of fall
camp.
After languishing around the .500 mark for
the last decade, Loth’s program took a large step forward with
a surprising 8-1 conference record last season. The only blemish was a 49-20
set back to Mount Union, which at season’s end was the third most points
Mount Union surrendered. Only Wheaton's 24 points in the national semifinal
and Whitewater's 26 in the Stagg Bowl were more.
On the strength of their 9-1 overall record, the Cardinals were rewarded
with their first ever NCAA playoff appearance via a Pool C at-large bid.
Based on the OAC’s stellar playoff history they were seeded fourth in the
North Region giving them a first round home contest with Franklin.
On paper, this match-up looked to be a reasonably winnable game for the
Cardinals. However what no one knew heading into the playoffs was that
Franklin had caught lightning in a bottle with quarterback Chad Rupp, a 2008
Gagliardi Finalist, who passed for over 500 yards in the Grizzlies 62-45 win
in Westerville. The Otterbein loss was only the second time in playoff
history that the OAC runner-up lost in the playoffs to a team other than
Mount Union, the other being Baldwin-Wallace’s loss to Wheaton in 2003.
Leading the Cardinals surge up the OAC standings was a very productive
offense (38.8 pts/game) led by Gagliardi Finalist Rafferty at quarterback,
who was the 10th rated passer in all of Division III’s 235 teams in terms
of efficiency. Though listed as a senior last season, Rafferty was actually
in graduate school and he somewhat surprisingly has another year of
eligibility remaining after transferring from Western Kentucky.
Even more surprising is the rumor floating around the Columbus area that
Rafferty is uncertain whether he’ll return for 2009. With a degree already
in hand there is speculation (and trepidation too) that Rafferty won’t
attend a second year of graduate
school simply to play football.
One thing is for certain though, for Otterbein to have any chance to remain
near the top of the OAC, Rafferty needs to be under center this fall as the
Cardinals were a relatively senior dominated team last season. Assuming
there aren’t any more guys with an additional year of unknown eligibility
and Rafferty plays in 2009, Otterbein returns only 10 of 22 starters.
Offensively, the Cardinals have a good mixture of talent to build around
with First-Team All-OAC receiver Ryan Rowley, First-Team All-OAC running
back Colton Coy, Second-Team All-OAC tight end Mike Detwiler, left guard
Chris Berndt and center Sam Watson joining Rafferty in the starting lineup.
Also returning is backup running back Eric Yates, who earned Second-Team
All-OAC honors.
Defensively, the Cardinals were hit hard by graduation with only four
starters returning from a rather average defense that surrendered 19.5
points per game. The most experienced group is the secondary
where First-Team All-OAC cornerback Chadrick Woodfork, free safety Danny
Lynch and strong safety John Hochstelter return, but one has to question
their production as the Cardinals ranked seventh in the OAC (and 172nd in
the nation) in pass defense.
A secondary’s best friend in pass defense is a great pass rush, but
unfortunately the entire defensive line has graduated as well as two of the
three linebackers. Only outside linebacker Donnie Reinhart returns to a
front seven that allowed 115 yards per game rushing and 323 yards per game
total. So it’s hard to imagine that the pass defense, or any part of the
Cardinals defense, will show improvement this year.
So what can we expect from the ’09 Cardinals? It depends a lot on the
decision of Rafferty and how they handle their newfound success and the
pressure of being expected to contend again. As they will find out this
season, it’s much easier to climb the mountain than it is to remain there.
Otterbein will also need to find more consistency in ’09 to avoid potential
upsets that almost cost them last season like their 30-14 win vs. Wilmington
where the Quakers were leading in the second half behind freshman backup
quarterback Adam Reynolds before they lost him to a third quarter injury,
and an 20-17 overtime win at depleted John Carroll.
If Rafferty returns, they will once again have one of the nation’s best
offenses, but a very inexperienced defense. The offense alone should win them seven or eight games, but their lack of defense will cost them against
the Raiders and possibly against some of the other OAC contenders.
If Rafferty does not return, then I think Otterbein is in serious trouble
and will struggle to reach .500. Not to take anything away from the other
guys, but as Rafferty went, so did the Cardinals last season. And ’09 is
likely to be no different. The remaining offensive returnees are nice
complimentary pieces but Rafferty is the only difference maker in the
Cardinals offense.
In all honesty, I believe Rafferty will return as the lure of playing one
last season of football is a very strong one to walk away from, especially
as a Gagliardi Finalist quarterback on a quality team with most of your
offensive weapons back. If he steps away, I’d be very surprised.
Their 2009 schedule sets up quite nicely for a young defense to get settled
in as the opener is an easy trip to Bethany (WV), followed by a week two trip to
Muskingum, both of whom they beat badly last season. On paper the home
opener in week three against Ohio Northern should be much tougher than last
year’s 37-7 shellacking, but ONU has been very disappointing and has been
tough to figure out the last couple years. If Wilmington can stay healthy
this season at quarterback the week five trip to face the Quakers might be
one of those fun, high scoring games worth watching if you’re free on
October 17th. Week six is a home date with cross-town rival Capital. By
the time the Cardinals visit Mount Union in week nine their season will
either be over with a couple losses on the ledger or we’ll be planning for
another quasi-OAC championship game. I’m guessing on the latter.
Once again the Baldwin-Wallace program was
a model of consistency in 2008. Unfortunately over the last decade for
Yellow Jacket fans it’s been a model of consistently average.
Outside of the ’02 and ’03 seasons when the
Jackets were led by Michigan State transfer Dan Larlham
at quarterback, B-W has
been hovering slightly above the .500 mark. The ’02 and ’03 seasons were
the only ones where they finished any higher than third place in the OAC and
can be directly attributed to the play making ability of Larlham.
Since 1999, their overall winning
percentage is 62.7%. Remove the two Larlham led seasons and the winning
dips to 57.5%. While many programs around the nation would love to
average five or six wins a season, a once proud former national champion and OAC bully like Baldwin-Wallace isn’t one of them.
Their third place 2008 OAC finish by itself
looks encouraging, but not when you consider their 5-5 record and surprising
losses to Wilmington and Heidelberg, both of whom finished at 4-6. In a
season where half the conference was either 5-4 or 4-5 in league play,
finishing tied for third isn’t the same as many previous seasons where third
place in the OAC equated to an 8-2
record and a Top 25 national ranking.
As a testament to their struggles last year,
only one B-W player, senior wide receiver Matt Lepley, earned First-Team
All-OAC honors.
The ’08 Yellow Jacket offense was ranked as
the conference’s second best offense in total yardage at 378.6 yards per
game but that was 168 yards a game behind conference leader Mount Union.
They were misleadingly ranked as the OAC’s third best scoring offense at
25.6 points per game, but were well behind OAC leaders Mount Union (45.5)
and Otterbein (38.8) and just narrowly ahead of Heidelberg (25.2) and
Capital (24.0).
Hope abounds in Berea for more points and
more wins as the Jackets head into 2009 with an experienced offense that
returns seven starters led by senior-to-be quarterback Anthony Gardner
(Honorable Mention All-OAC). Gardner is an athletic quarterback with good
decision making skills as evidenced by his third best quarterback efficiency
rating in the conference behind Gagliardi Winner Micheli and Gagliardi
Finalist Rafferty. I dare you to find a quarterback amongst any of Division
III’s 235 teams that had a better pair of quarterbacks to compete against in
conference than Gardner did in Micheli and Rafferty.
Gardner should have plenty of time to stand
in the pocket as four starters return up front, led by senior left tackle
Brett Scarl (Second-Team All-OAC). Joining Scarl is senior left guard Dan
Love, senior right guard Broc Dial and senior right tackle John Wilson.
The backfield returns good depth with
senior running back Kyle Crook and sophomore running back Tim Miker, B-W’s
top rushers from 2008, as well as backup fullback Scott Weber.
The receiving
corps is a major question mark
however as only senior tight end Kyle Skoczen returns.
2008 saw the once dominate B-W defense fall
to the OAC’s sixth rated defense against the rush, pass and scoring as well
as shockingly being the OAC’s worst defense in registering quarterback sacks
(1.3 sacks/game), thereby garnering
special recognition for only defensive tackle Joe Kowalski (Second-Team All-OAC)
and linebacker Paul Burger (Honorable Mention All-OAC), both of whom do not
return.
Reasonable numbers do return to the Jacket
defense this season with seven starters back, but none of them earned
all-conference honors putting in question the ability of the ’09 defense to
create the game-changing plays necessary to dictate tempo in the always
competitive OAC.
The most experienced unit will be the
secondary where senior strong safety Ryan Clokey, senior cornerback Pete
Taylor and junior cornerback Ryan Dugan return.
The linebacking
corps returns senior outside backer
Brad Koester and junior outside backer Ryan Kish but loses one of the
conference’s best middle linebackers in Burger. When healthy, Burger
had First-Team All-Conference ability, but nagging injuries cost him parts
of both the ‘07 and ’08 seasons.
The defensive line returns senior tackle Kyle Menn
and junior end Keith Darbut and three of the four backups.
Reasonable expectations for the 2009
Jackets would be for them to continue their string of slightly above .500
play. The season opener against Franklin should be much easier this
time with Gagliardi Finalist quarterback Rupp and almost all his surrounding
talent having graduated. If B-W opens with a home loss to the Grizzlies,
they could be in trouble as week two is at cross-town rival John Carroll and
week four is a trip to Mount Union. A slow start to the season could put
the Brown & Gold well on their way to only their second losing season in the
last 42 years. The remaining schedule is spaced pretty well with Otterbein
coming to Berea in week five, a trip to Ada in week eight to face Ohio
Northern and a season finale at Capital.
Since the 2005 shocker over Mount Union in
Dean Paul’s first season in Ada, the Polar Bears have been respectably
“decent”, which does not match the expectations for an ONU program that was
pushing Mount Union to the very brink less than a decade ago with great
names such as Franzer, Robertson and Vagedes all in the same huddle.
The 2006 season was a dismal 6-4 mainly due
to key injuries. 2007 wasn’t much better at 7-3 but didn’t include any of
the injury excuses that ’06 had and saw the Polar Bears score at a rather
pedestrian 23 points per game pace and surrender 17 points per contest. 2008 was a
further step backward in finishing 5-5 overall with an offense that averaged
19.5 points per game and a defense that surrendered 18.7.
After the graduation of often injured
running back R.J. Meadows, the ONU offense heads into the season centered
around junior-to-be running back Brent Donley. Donley wasn’t on the depth
chart to start the ’08 season but with Meadows again lost to injury the
young back burst onto the scene and earned First-Team All-OAC accolades after finishing with over 750
rushing yards and seven
touchdowns scored over the last seven games.
Paving the way for Donley is an experienced
offensive line that returns three starters in senior left guard Andrew
Benchic (First-Team All-OAC), senior left tackle Rick Ingold (Second-Team
All-OAC) and senior center Patrick Smith. The two open spots will most
likely be filled by juniors Justin Southwick and Pat Dochenetz, both of whom
have prototype size in the 6-4, 290 range.
The Polar Bear receiving
corps returns the starting wide outs
in junior Michael Busch and Sam Amidon. As has been the case over the last
several years, both Busch and Amidon are solid receivers but are not the
game breakers needed to stretch the field, thereby making it more difficult
to run the ball as the safeties can crowd the line of scrimmage knowing the
corners won’t get beat deep.
The biggest question offensively is once
again the quarterback position. Since the graduation of Franzer in 2000,
the Polar Bears have been searching for a signal caller to make plays, not
just hand off. Through the last four graduated quarterbacks (Jeff Soliday,
Corey Minnfield, Adam Quirk and Jeff Pankratz) and now Kyle Simmons, Ohio
Northern has been winning in spite of their play, not because of it.
The keys to the Polar Bear offense were
turned over to Orrville product Simmons last season after he split time with
Pankratz in ’07. While Simmons has shown some flashes of ability, his play
has been too inconsistent for Northern to be considered a legitimate
threat. Simmons finished the ’08 season as the OAC’s ninth ranked passer in
terms of efficiency and dead last in total passing yardage with 100 yards
per game.
I find it simply amazing that Ohio Northern
has struggled for so long with their passing game. Their passing numbers
over the last decade look more like what you would expect from Muskingum,
not an ONU team anticipating to contend for a conference title.
The experienced ’08 Polar Bear defense was
built on being disruptive and getting into the opponent’s backfield. They
led the OAC in both sacks and tackles-for-loss and were ranked in the top 10
nationally in both categories. Their depth and ability was proven by all
four of last season’s starting defensive lineman earning some level of All-OAC
recognition, led by First-Team tackle Jake Fallis.
Unfortunately, Fallis and
end Lokai-Owens (Honorable Mention All-OAC) have graduated leaving only
senior end Josh Horn (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior tackle Alan Strange
(Honorable Mention All-OAC) to shoulder the load up front this season.
For ONU to continue their trend of tough,
aggressive defenses, the Polar Bears have a lot of holes to fill as only
three other starters return in senior middle linebacker Gabe
Washington (Second-Team All-OAC), senior outside backer Adam Jones and
junior defensive back Jesse Richards (Second-Team All-OAC).
The schedule is the same as last season
which puts a serious premium on breaking fall camp in mid-season form. One
could argue that the Polar Bears will face their three best opponents on the
entire schedule in consecutive weeks to open the season. The opener is a
home contest with North Central (IL), which beat Northern 20-3
last year. Week two sees a visit from defending National Champion Mount
Union, which pasted the Bears 44-7 one year ago. Week three is road trip to
Westerville to face playoff qualifier Otterbein, which won 37-7 last season.
The combined ’08 record of those three opponents is a daunting 35-3.
For ONU to reclaim its place amongst the OAC’s best teams, Paul simply must get much better play from his
quarterback, especially to start the year. If not, you can expect another
.500 season.
Capital Crusaders / 2008 record: 5-5 overall,
4-5 OAC (Tied for 5th Place)
The Coach Bickel era began with a 4-0
start to the season but finished with a resounding “thud” as an experienced
and playoff tested squad that returned 15 starters finished 4-5 in
conference play, losing five of its last six games. An injury to quarterback
Marty Assman was once again a major contributor to the lost season as Assman
went down early in the second half of the John Carroll loss in week six.
Similar to 2007, the Capital offense was
clicking right along with Assman under center (33 pts/game) and the
Crusaders were ranked as high as fourth in the nation before a week five
loss to Mount Union. But with sophomore Nick Alexander filling in under
center, the Capital offense (15 pts/game) and season
came to a screeching halt. In ’07 under Collins, the Crusaders
survived the loss of Assman to injury early in the season by riding a
stifling defense to an 8-2 regular season and a playoff berth. However, it
seems the magic left Bexley when Collins headed to Saginaw Valley State.
If Assman can stay healthy and lead the
offense for an entire season, Bickel’s fortunes should turnaround quickly
with nine starters back on offense including four offensive linemen, led by
Second-Team All-OAC senior center Cory Dutcher and Second-Team All-OAC
senior right guard Kyle Koblinski. Also returning up front is junior left
tackle Bill Giblin and senior right tackle Chad Davis.
With the extra time for Assman to stand in
the pocket, the three returning receivers should see more passes coming
their way. Headlining the receiving
corps
will be junior Matt White, an Honorable Mention All-OAC selection last
season. Joining White will be senior Evan Blake, a Honorable Mention All-OAC
performer in 2007, and senior Matt Merritt.
Though Capital hasn’t featured the running
game in ages, they do return experience at running back with junior Dominic
D’Andrea, a 6-2, 220 bruiser.
Defensively, six starters return from the
’08 squad that finished in the middle of the OAC pack in almost every
statistical category. The Crusader "D" ranked either fifth or sixth in
scoring defense, total defense, rush defense, pass efficiency defense and
pass yardage defense.
The strength of this season’s defense
should be the secondary, which returns three starters in senior free safety
Brad Pickens (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior cornerbacks Evan DeLuca and
Drew Stimmel.
The defensive line returns senior tackle Drew Ruble
and senior end Josh Ramey. The last returning starter is junior middle
linebacker Sam Jacobs (Honorable Mention All-OAC).
The Crusaders open the season with a trip
to Adrian, whom they disposed of rather easily 34-14 last season. OAC
play opens with three favorable match-ups against Heidelberg, Wilmington and
Marietta, before the week five showdown with Mount Union. Hopefully for
Bickel, his troops are a little healthier to end this season as the final
two weeks will likely define the ’09 Crusaders with contests against Ohio
Northern and Baldwin-Wallace.
One advantage to the ’09 schedule is most
of the OAC powers are traveling to Bexley as Mount Union, John Carroll, Ohio
Northern and Baldwin Wallace all make trips to Central Ohio. Only the
cross-town war with Otterbein is on the road for the Crusaders this season.
It’s hard to predict the health of a team
as injuries are part of the game, but Capital certainly has been snake bit
the last couple years with the loss of Assman for significant periods of
time. If he can finally stay healthy for his senior season, the Crusaders
could be a force to be reckoned with based on the depth and experience they
have back on offense. The Crusader defense isn’t overly experienced, but
Bickel was a great defensive coordinator under Collins and there isn’t any
reason to believe he won’t be able to build a reasonably stout defense to go
along with a potentially very good offense.
Simply put, the key for Capital in ’09 is
the health of Assman.
John Carroll Blue Streaks / 2008 record: 5-5
overall, 4-5 OAC (Tied for 5th Place)
If Blue Streak fans thought 2006
(5-5 overall) and 2007 (6-4 overall) were disappointing, they had to
be beside themselves at the end of 2008. The problem wasn’t that their
final record was any different from the previous seasons, it was how they
got there that made ’08 so painful to watch.
The Streaks opened the ’08 season winning
five of their first six contests, and only a squandered 10-point lead in the
fourth quarter of a 21-17 loss at Baldwin-Wallace kept JCU from a 6-0
start. However, a promising season ended in the dumps as the Streaks lost
their last four games, including an embarrassing 15-14 setback at Muskingum
in week nine, and an overtime loss to Otterbein (20-17) in the season finale.
The Achilles heel for the JCU offense was
its play along the line of scrimmage. It finished at or very near the
bottom of the OAC in two very telling statistics:
10th in rushing
offense (90 yds/game)
9th in sacks
allowed (3.4 sacks/game)
When you can’t protect your quarterback or run the ball with any
consistency, you’re in trouble, especially in the OAC. In the contest
versus Mount Union alone, quarterback Mark Petruziello was sacked seven
times and knocked down at least another dozen times.
The John Carroll offense could have been explosive if the
offensive line would have
protected Petruziello as he was a talented, athletic quarterback, capable of
making the big play and making all the major throws. As a testament of his playmaking ability,
the league’s head coaches voted him Honorable Mention All-OAC. But the
quarterback needs to be upright to deliver the ball and Petruziello simply
didn’t have a chance to stand in the pocket and read the defense.
For Head Coach Regis Scafe’s sake,
I hope four returning starters to the O-line equates to improved protection
for new signal caller Jeff Javorek, and open running lanes for new running
back Mark Elsaessar. Otherwise Javorek and Elsaessar might not survive the
season as both are of slight build in the 5-10, 180 range.
The returnees up front are junior left tackle Philip Bokovitz, senior center
Joseph Micca, junior right guard Brian Stevenson and senior right tackle
Keven Dorsainvil.
One bright spot offensively for the Blue & Gold heading into 2009 is the
depth at wide receiver as their top two pass catchers return in senior wide
receiver Frank Ross (Second-Team All-OAC) and senior wide receiver Rebere
Sparks, as well as the starting tight end senior Nick Spahar.
Defensively, the Streaks were very strong in 2008 and easily had the second
best defense in the conference behind Mount Union. They were near the top
of the OAC in all the major defensive categories including second in scoring
defense, second in forcing turnovers and third in total defense. The strength of that
defense was an active and sure tackling secondary and linebacking
unit, led by five All-OAC performers
including First-Teamers middle linebacker Mike Nettling and free safety
Carlo Melaragno.
Unfortunately, only three starters return from that defense and none of them
were all-conference performers. The returners are senior end
Case Allin, senior tackle Matt Hodges and senior outside backer Alex
Mileskiewicz.
The season starts with a home date against Thomas More, whom they beat
41-14 last season. The OAC slate opens with a visit from Baldwin-Wallace
which should be a good, even pairing between programs that are fighting to
stay above the up and coming Wilmington Quakers and Heidelberg Student
Princes. Much like last year, its season will likely be made or lost in
weeks six through eight when JCU faces Capital, Ohio Northern and Mount
Union in successive contests.
For the Streaks to win enough games to match their ’08 win total, their
offensive line is going to have to be much better than last season and the defense
needs to find some new playmakers. From my vantage point of watching MTU
vs. JCU varsity and junior varsity games over the last few years, I
seriously doubt the quality depth exists in University Heights to fill all
the holes in the defense. So I’m expecting another disappointing
season in for the Blue & Gold.
After consistently alternating between 2-8
and 3-7 seasons over the last six campaigns, Wilmington took a
step forward in ’08 by winning four OAC games , which is the second most
conference wins since joining the conference in 2000. Only their 7-2 inaugural
season ('00) saw the Quakers be more competitive in league play than they
were in ’08.
Third-year starter at quarterback, Billy
Blackburn, entered last season with high hopes based on the eight other
returning starters, including four players that earned All-OAC honors last
season in senior First-Team All-OAC wide receiver Marque Jones, senior
First-Team All-OAC tight end Wes Anders, sophomore Second-Team All-OAC
running back Marc Otte and senior Honorable Mention All-OAC wide receiver
Brandon Hiatt.
However the injury bug bit the
quarterback
position hard in mid-season as Blackburn went down against Muskingum in week
five. One week later against Otterbein, backup sophomore quarterback
Adam Reynolds was lost as well. The
Reynolds injury was extremely costly
for the win/loss column as the Quakers were leading the Cardinals in the
third quarter before he went down.
When Mount Union came to town in week
seven, the Quaker starting quarterback was a true freshman taking his first
collegiate snaps from center. Making your first start against the nation’s
best defense isn’t the best way to ease yourself into the college game, but
that was exactly what Nate Stierhoff was facing. Unfortunately the injury
bug bit again when Stierhoff left the game in the second quarter, leaving the
quarterback duties to a rotation of wide receivers taking a direct snap and
attempting to run. As expected, it didn’t work.
Without the injuries, the Quakers probably
would have cracked the .500 mark which would have been a very successful
season. Even so, the improvement from 2-8 to 4-6 with the close scare they
put into playoff qualifier Otterbein was enough to garner Head Coach Barry
Wulf OAC Coach-of-the-Year honors.
Heading into 2009, Blackburn will be taking
the snaps for his fourth season and will have the comfort of all five of his
offensive linemen returning in senior left tackle C.J. Potter, senior left guard
Luke Harris, junior center Randy Swain, senior right guard Matt McCabe and
junior right tackle Adam Salyers.
Both running backs also return for ’09 with
senior tailback Tim Pugh and junior fullback Brett McEvoy.
The receiving
corps was a good one
last year as the flanker, split end and
tight end all earned All-OAC honors, but unfortunately for Wulf, they were
all seniors last season. So for Blackburn to have a successful senior
campaign, he’s going to have to find some new targets.
Defensively, the Quakers return seven
starters from a squad that was rather porous in ’08. However it may be too
harsh to completely hang all of the blame on the defensive personnel without
any consistent production from the decimated offense. The Wilmington
defense was on the field way too much and finished the ’08 season ranked
somewhere between seventh to ninth in the major defensive categories like
total defense, scoring defense, rush defense, pass defense, etc.
Wulf has the makings of an improved defense
with good experience up the middle with all three defensive linemen, both inside
linebackers and both safeties returning to his 3-4 alignment.
Junior end Kenny Marsh (Second-Team All-OAC),
senior nose guard Cedric Holmes and senior end Nathan Geers bring stability
to the front line. Senior Chris Medley (Second-Team All-OAC) and junior
Bryce Martin return to the inside linebacker spots. The secondary will be
built around junior free safety T.J Burbridge (Honorable Mention All-OAC)
and junior strong safety Donta’ Stone. The holes are on the edges with both
outside linebacker and cornerback spots up for grabs entering camp.
Their season once again starts against a
quality Mount St. Joseph team that has either won or challenged for the last
couple Heartland College Athletic Conference crowns, and is likely to do the same this season. The OAC slate
opens with a potentially winnable game against Marietta before the OAC’s big
boys come calling.
Overall, I think the Quakers have the
potential to finish .500 if their defense can improve against the run and if
the young receivers step up to provide solid targets for Blackburn. With a
four-year starter at quarterback and an experienced O-line, they should be
able to score enough points to win some games. My only question is whether
the defense can improve enough to make the difference between a close loss
versus a gutty victory.
The Student Princes could be the poster
child for how quickly expectations can change.
Two years ago the Student Princes were in
the midst of a 30+ game losing streak and would give anything to just win a
single game. Enter Hallett at head coach for the 2007 season and immediately
hope sprung eternal on campus that the losing streak was history. They were
right as Hallett’s charges went 4-6 in that inaugural season.
Heidelberg finished the ’08 season at 4-6
for the second season in a row, however this time that record left a
somewhat hollow feeling as they were expecting much bigger things from an
experienced team returning eight starters on offense and nine on
defense.
It doesn’t take long for the expectations
to change in college sports. Just two short years removed from a 36-game
losing streak and the Student Princes were unsatisfied with a four win
season.
What made the ’08 season so frustrating was
exactly how close The ‘Berg was to six wins. A failed two-point conversion
in the closing minutes of its week three battle at John Carroll was the
difference in a 17-15 loss, and a week eight home loss to Wilmington
(23-20) was a hard one to swallow after leading 20-10 at halftime.
With eight starters returning last season, the
Heidelberg offense was productive and finished the year ranked as the OAC’s
fourth best offense in scoring and total offensive yards. Their “O” was
well balanced being ranked fifth in both rushing and passing yardage
gained. Based simply on the offensive numbers, the Orange & Black should
have garnered more than four wins.
As we look forward to 2009 offensively, the
Student Princes will have some holes to fill as only five starters return
led by senior Second-Team All-OAC running back Jemar Lewis. Also returning
is junior quarterback Andrew Miller, junior fullback Chance Ferrell,
sophomore right guard Derrick Arbogast and sophomore right tackle Paul Dunn.
Miller had a reasonably successful
sophomore season, throwing for over 200 yards per game with a good
quarterback efficiency rating of 133.20, which placed him fourth in
conference behind Micheli (Mount Union), Rafferty (Otterbein) and Gardner
(Baldwin-Wallace).
The downfall for much of 2008’s woes hangs
on a defense that finished dead last in the OAC in rush defense, giving up a
staggering 209 yards per game, and was ranked ninth overall in total defense
and scoring defense.
Hopefully another year of experience, and
maybe more importantly, another year in the weight room, makes the difference
on “D” as Hallett returns eight starters, headlined by senior tackle
Matt Grieves, a Second-Team All-OAC selection.
Joining Grieves up front is junior tackle
Chris Bowden and sophomore end Wayne Lanum. Junior outside backer Vaughn
Klein (Honorable Mention All-OAC) and senior middle linebacker Justin Dawson
return at the linebacker spots. The secondary returns senior cornerback
Julius Higginbotham, senior strong safety Wayne Glisson and sophomore
cornerback Tony Gordon.
I’m somewhat hesitate to assume that a
defense porous enough to surrender over 200 yards rushing per game in a
conference known more for its passing attacks is going to drastically
improve from one year to the next with the same personnel.
Their season starts with a road date
against Westminster (PA), whom they
easily throttled last year 62-27. If you ever wondered about the relative
strength of the OAC versus the Presidents Athletic Conference, the comparison between Heidelberg and
Waynesburg is rather telling. In 2008, Waynesburg finished tied for third in
the PAC with Grove City whereas Heidelberg finished eighth in the OAC.
The conference slate gets interesting very quickly
with weeks two through six being a gauntlet of Capital (A), John
Carroll (H), Otterbein (A), Ohio Northern (A), Mount Union (H) and
Baldwin-Wallace (H).
The ’09 season will be an interesting one
to see if the Student Princes have stockpiled the talent and depth necessary
to remain a mid-level OAC team, or whether they will regress a bit with the
graduation losses on offense. Though I’m sure Hallett would disagree, I
think it will be very difficult for Heidelberg to improve on their win total
this year. And in fact, it might be considered a success if they retain
their place in the standings with the lack of players returning on offense
and lack of strength defensively against the run.
One thing is for sure though, Heidelberg
isn’t the guaranteed win that they were a couple years ago before Hallett
arrived on campus!
After a winless season to start the Al
Logan era in New Concord, the Fighting Muskies made significant progress in
year two and improved their win total by three games. They were also very
close to a few more wins if the ball would have bounced their way a little
more.
Specifically, there were two contests (22-20 loss at Wilmington and 45-41
home loss to Heidelberg) that must have had the Muskies thinking “what if”
all off season. Both contests went to the wire and a play here or there
could have made the difference.
The encouraging thing for
Logan is that his squad was competitive against most of the OAC and they
logged wins against Ohio Northern and John Carroll, two teams they
haven’t beaten in years.
Offensively, the Muskies return six starters from a unit that ranked a very
respectable sixth in rushing offense (119 yds/game), total offense (305 yds/game)
and scoring (20.5 pts/game) as well as seventh in passing yardage (186 yds/game)
in conference. These numbers are a drastic improvement over 2007 when the
Muskies finished dead last in almost every offensive category.
The only all-conference performer returning for ’09 is senior left tackle
Steve Emmert (Honorable Mention All-OAC). The other two all-league honorees
graduated with wide receiver Jack Murray and running back Caleb Fuller,
thereby leaving a couple big holes at the skill positions.
The Muskies do return some experience in the backfield with junior
quarterback Jake Burns taking the snaps again with senior wide receiver Josh
Sams and junior Blake Allen as his primary receiving targets.
Joining Emmert at the line of scrimmage is senior center Scott Madison and
junior right guard Brian Barnhart.
The Muskie defense returns eight starters, but none were All-OAC honorees
from a squad that finished 2008 ranked at or very near the bottom of the
OAC’s statistical categories. The one area where they did perform well was
tackles-for-loss, where they ranked fourth at 6.1 tackles-per-loss per game.
The most experienced unit on defense will be the linebackers with all three
starters returning in senior outside backer Brad Jordan, junior middle
linebacker Brian Madzia and junior outside backer Dan Miller.
The secondary returns senior free safety O.J. Siomedi and junior cornerbacks
Nick Carfagna and Dennis Hicks.
The defensive line returns junior end Robbie Weisenberger and junior tackle Michael
Fritz.
The season begins with a road trip to Defiance whom they beat handily last
season 35-10. OAC play opens the following two weeks with Otterbein and Mount Union, which is rough
way to start league play.
Regardless of the numbers returning, it’s hard to see the Muskies matching
their win total for 2009. It feels somewhat like two of their three wins
last season were true upsets over ONU and JCU that won’t happen again this
year. If I had to guess right now, I’d pencil Muskingum in for a two or
three win season at best.
As expected, Jeff Filkovski’s first season
as head coach at Marietta was a rough one after taking over from Kurt Weise who left the cupboard pretty bare leaving little depth for Filkovski
to build a viable team with. In the OAC it’s very rare for a young player
to be physically prepared to compete, especially on the line of scrimmage,
but that’s exactly what Filkovski had by season’s end with five freshmen and
six sophomores in the starting lineup. Three of which were on the
defensive line.
An old adage in coaching is that every
freshman starter equates to one loss on the field and that was the case and
more for the Pioneers last season as they struggled to get their two wins
over Thiel (2-8 overall) and Muskingum (3-7 overall). The upside of all the
youth that played in ’08 is a lot of experience returning for ’09.
Offensively, Marietta returns the entire
starting lineup except for the center, headlined by senior Honorable Mention
All-OAC running back Lamar Hunter, which was their only offensive
all-conference performer. Joining Hunter in the backfield is junior
fullback Matt Ischy and quarterbacks Dexter Hughes (senior) and Ander Keller
(sophomore).
The receiving unit consists of junior
flanker Cory Kreichbaum, junior tight end Zach Lashaway and sophomore slot
receiver Jahmaal Jones.
The offensive line should be senior left tackle George
Frisch, senior left guard Chris Carter, sophomore right guard Matt Myers and
junior right tackle Antoni Santilli.
Defensively, the Pioneers return seven
starters but lose their best two players from last season in middle
linebacker Grant Cowell and cornerback Clinton Thompson, their only All-OAC
performers. The ‘Etta defense was horrendous in 2008 and finished the
season ranked 229th out of 235 teams nationally in pass defense and 218th in
scoring defense. Any hope of increased wins must begin with improved play
defensively.
The most experienced unit on “D” will be
the secondary where three seniors return in cornerback Corey Lemke, strong
safety George Davis and free safety Rob Williamson.
The front four was extremely young last
season and returns junior end Adam Tate, junior tackle Pete Santagate and
sophomore Cody Andrews.
The only linebacker returning is sophomore
outside backer Dan Starr.
What can we expect from the Pioneers this
season? The 17 returning starters point to a more competitive team, but I’m
not sure that will equate to more actual wins. Besides their two wins, the
only other game they were even remotely competitive in was the 42-40 loss to
Heidelberg. Their next closest game was a 31-6 home loss against John
Carroll. So even though their play should be improved, I doubt the
improvement will be enough to get more than two or three wins.
Marietta has a reasonable season opener
with nearby Thiel (2-8 in ’08) coming to the river. The 21-18 Marietta win
over Thiel accounted for half of their season win total and likely could be
so again in ’09. Their OAC slate opens at Wilmington, who drilled Marietta
34-7 last year. From there the schedule gets noticeably tougher with Baldwin-Wallace,
Capital, John Carroll and Ohio Northern in succession. The Pioneer season
ends with a trip to Mount Union.
The Games that will
shape the 2008 season:
A team’s season is often made or destroyed by a single win or loss. And
that is especially true in the extremely tough OAC where the champion is
guaranteed a playoff spot and the runner-up is likely to garner a Pool C
at-large bid. If you’re able and willing to travel around this fall, here
is where you need to be to catch the Game of the Week for the 2009
season:
Week 1 /
September 5th –
Franklin at
Baldwin-Wallace:
The easy choice in week one might have been
Mount Union traveling to St. John Fisher, but last season’s opener wasn’t
competitive and this year’s Fisher squad is even younger. So
the best place to see a great game this week is likely in Berea. Franklin
is coming off a surprising run to the Regional Finals but has lost
All-Everything quarterback Chad Rupp. And B-W looks to avenge last year’s
42-35 loss. If nothing else, this game will tell us whether Franklin is
more than the Chad Rupp show or not.
Week 2 / September
19th – Mount Union at Ohio Northern:
The Dean Paul led Polar Bears are the last
OAC team to beat Mount Union (21-14 in 2005), but have been struggling ever
since. With North Central coming to Ada in week one the ONU season could be
over before it even starts if they’re not firing on all cylinders early.
Week 3 / September
26th – John Carroll at Heidelberg:
Last
season’s game was a 17-15 slugfest that ended with a missed Heidelberg
two-point conversion in the closing minutes. The ‘Berg has been close to
beating JCU the last two years and this might be the year they finally get
that elusive “W” against the Blue Streaks.
Week 4 / October
3rd – Baldwin-Wallace at Mount Union:
If nothing else, B-W has proven over the
years to be Mount’s most consistent challenger on the field. They might not
always finish close to MTU in the standings, but the Jackets usually play
the Raiders physically tough.
Week 5 / October 10th
– Otterbein at Baldwin-Wallace:
Last season’s 42-28 Otterbein win was the first real test of the season for
the Cardinals as B-W led at halftime. This game should be the first tightly
contested game for the Cardinals this season as well.
Week 6 / October 17th
– Otterbein at Wilmington:
Wilmington had Otterbein on the ropes last year before losing their second
quarterback of the season to injury, ending their upset hopes midway through
the third quarter. A healthy Quaker squad could give the Cardinals
everything they can handle again this season.
Week 7 / October 24th
– Baldwin-Wallace at Heidelberg:
B-W was the first OAC victim of the rejuvenated Student Princes in 2007 by
the shocking score of 42-20. The ‘Berg turned the trick again last season
by winning 37-34 in overtime and ’09 should be another good one.
Week 8 /
October 31st
– Baldwin-Wallace at Ohio Northern:
B-W hung on for a hard fought 10-7 win over ONU last year. These two
usually play it close to the vest, so if you like ball control offenses,
defensive strategy and fighting over field position, here’s the game to
watch. If not, this would be a good day to rake the leaves.
Week 9 / November 7th – Otterbein at Mount Union:
If Otterbein can rebuild their
defensive line, this game should be for the OAC title and a high seed in the
NCAA playoffs.
Week 10 / November
14th – John Carroll at Otterbein:
Otterbein survived a 20-17 overtime thriller to gain their first ever
playoff berth last season in University Heights. Unless the Cardinals can
shock the Purple Raiders in week nine, their playoff lives will likely be
decided right here.
How it might end up:
Here’s how I think the
OAC will shake out this year:
1. Mount Union
– The nation will focus on the graduation of Gagliardi Award winning
quarterback Greg Micheli and NCAA career rushing leader and All-American
running back Nate Kmic, but the OAC will learn that the Raiders are
absolutely loaded at every other position on the field in 2009. The
defense will be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference with as
deep and talented a defensive line as I can ever remember and the receiving
corps
will be one of the best ever. The
only question mark between having to win the conference on the strength of
the defense and running away with it is the hole at quarterback. But I’m
guessing Kehres will find someone more than capable of steering the
ship through the conference mine field.
Predicting the top spot is easy. Now it gets interesting.
2. Capital
– If Assman can stay healthy, the Crusaders have all the pieces to
make a run toward a NCAA playoff spot. They have experience on
offense and a good defensive minded head coach.
3. Otterbein –I was tempted to pick the
Cardinals to repeat their second place finish, but I just can’t buy in to a
program that has lacked the consistency over the years to live up their
potential every year. They have the talent offensively to earn the second
place spot, but the defense is young and they have to deal with the pressure
of expectations that they haven’t ever had to deal with before.
4.
Baldwin-Wallace
– An experienced quarterback and a solid defense should be enough
for B-W to stay in the top half of the conference.
5.
Ohio Northern
–Inconsistent quarterback play, lack of
playmakers at wide receiver and an average defense dooms ONU from climbing
any higher.
6. Heidelberg –Good numbers on both offense and defense allows The ‘Berg to climb
up the standings.
7.
Wilmington
– A four-year starter at quarterback and five returning O-linemen
help the Quakers continue their steady climb from the cellar.
8. John
Carroll
– By name recognition alone, I have a hard time picking JCU this
low, but a new quarterback combined with only three defensive starters could
be the reason that sends John Carroll streaking even further down the
standings.
9. Marietta
– The Pioneers are improving and beat the Muskies last season.
10. Muskingum –The line between ninth and 10th
is a fine one and the Muskies and Pioneers could easily flip flop.
I hope you found our 2009 Ohio Athletic Conference Preview insightful.
Thanks for reading!